Fun with correlations

Correlation vs causation....

is kinda like a chicken or egg problem. We have two things that are ASSOCIATED, but we don't always know whether:

* one thing causes the other, or

* vice-versa, or

* whether they're caused by. a THIRD thing, or

* whether it's just a big coincidence!


We come across this issue all the time when we try to make inferences about causality, or question those inferences...in other words, trying to figure out why things happen.

We see this in attempts to....

link teen violence to soda consumption

figure out why city kids are more likely than rural kids to have food allergies

even to claim that girls who post more Facebook photos value their appearance more!


Obviously, some claims are stronger than others.

global warming and pirates

My favorite example is this study claiming that coffee drinkers may live longer, since it avoided many typical Logical Reasoning flaws...

and because I like to drink coffee :)

So, read these studies carefully. The LSAT Logical Reasoning section makes lots of them :)

-Skeptical Steve


P.S. Reach out and send me the best article you've come across lately featuring correlation/causation issues. I'm always looking for more examples :)


Recommended Resources:

1. LSAT Courses
The best of my LSAT material with exclusive access to attend my Live Online LSAT Master Classes + Q&As, and on-demand video lessons you can watch anytime. Plus, LSAT study plans to keep you on track. Save hundreds of dollars with an LSAT course package.

2. Logical Reasoning Explanations
The explanations that should have come with the LSAT. These don't just fall back on "out of scope," but actually tell you why the wrong answers are wrong, why the right answers are right, and the easiest way to get the correct answer.

3. Logical Reasoning Cheat Sheet
Based on what I'd typically do in college: read what the professor emphasized and condense it all onto a single piece of paper. It gave me a quick reference, making things a lot less threatening and a lot more manageable.




LSAT Test Day I Waking Up + Getting There


Waking Up
The day before you totally relax, and the day of, you wake up early. You're setting multiple alarms. Maybe you have an old smartphone you can use as a backup alarm clock. Maybe you can have a couple of friends agree they're going to call you and go to your house and drag you out of bed in the morning if that's what it comes to, because maybe you won't sleep well the night before.   
(And if you think you won't sleep well the night before, think about why that might be and what you can do about that now. Maybe you're going to take melatonin or something else.)


Don't take anything too strong because you do want to wake up on time. If you're planning to try something new, try it out now so you have a few nights to put this into practice.

On the morning of, you're going to wake up early. You're going to know where your test center is and you're going to have multiple ways of getting there. (Research all of this the week before - not the day before.)



Getting to the Test Center
If your car doesn't start, what do you do? Is there gas in the car? If you're taking the public transport like a bus, or a train or a subway, what are you going to do if it's not running well that morning? If you're taking it on a Saturday, public transit may not be as smooth or as frequent. If you're taking it on a weekday, maybe there's rush-hour traffic. Leave early.
And where exactly is the test center? If it's on a college campus, it might be tough to find. Try to figure out where it is before the morning up. Call the office of that college or university and see if you can track down the source who would know that information. Maybe if it's somewhere in the city, you have to hunt it down and know exactly what the cross streets are and write that down for yourself.

Y want to have that all mapped out because you can't bring your cell phone and can't use that to navigate. Believe me, they are very serious about that. I even heard a story once of proctors who asked everyone who has their cell phone with them, bring it up here and we'll hold it for you.


Then when those people brought their cell phones up to the proctors, the proctors kicked them all out. I can't believe they did that to those test takers. You could probably call that entrapment. But anyway, that's what they did. It's possible in the future they'll have a place you can store your phone. 


But right now that's not the case and they are very serious about this. So don't bring your phone, leave it at home. Obviously the question becomes, well, "how do I survive? How do I breathe? How do I get picked up?"

People took the LSAT before cell phones.  There is a way. Maybe there is a pay phone that's not too dusty or gross, so if you bring some quarters, you could use that. Or maybe you could ask some nice stranger on the street to help you out. Or maybe you could ask one of the other test-takers who shouldn't have brought their phone but did anyway, and ask if they'll do a favor after the exam or ask the proctors to borrow theirs.

For more, I've got an entire playlist focused on LSAT Test Day prep here -----> and several articles on LSAT Test Day prep here ----->




Weird thing about LSAT reading comp (and how to fix it)

When I reviewed notes taken by high scorers vs low scorers, I noticed something kinda weird.

The people who took FEWER notes....did BETTER!

This is important, so let me rephrase:

The people who do best on Reading Comprehension mark very little, or even not at all!


Maybe you don't believe me, but I've tested this out. It works.

I know you might not be comfortable marking NOTHING at all, so I've developed the following system (borrowed from my LSAT courses):


This is a minimal marking strategy that points out the ONLY things worth marking on the passage.

The nice thing is, it lets you write down *something*, while still keeping you focused on what's most important.


Here's the system:

Mark all letters and numbers in the margins next to the relevant line. (For the Digital LSAT, mark on your scratch paper in a rough order parallel to the passage on the screen.)


Viewpoints - opinions / theories / hypotheses--Mark different viewpoints as V1, V2


Viewpoint 1 = V1
Viewpoint 2 = V2


Evidence - details, supporting examples
--Mark evidence for each viewpoint as E1, E2


Evidence for V1 = E1
Evidence for V2 = E2


Advocates (if any) - people promoting opinions
--Mark advocates for each viewpoint as A1, A2


Advocates of V1 = A1
Advocates of V2 = A2


Author's opinion (if any) - may fit with V1/V2
--place relevant V and # next to lines and circle it.



Now, keep in mind that not every passage will necessarily contain all of these. Some passages won't describe the advocates of each viewpoint, but passages generally contain the other parts of the structure.

(Note: Some passages have more than 2 viewpoints.)


If nothing else, at least make sure you get the viewpoints down


Identifying viewpoints was key for my student Michela. She even included this strategy in her LSAT Game Plan - the one that helped her increase her score from 149 to 163...not like that's a big deal or anything :)


Til next time,

Steve


P.S. Sometimes it can get boring to just talk about things so abstractly, so in my next article, I'll actually SHOW you how to do this with examples.


Recommended Resources:

1. LSAT Courses
The best of my LSAT materials, with my full curriculum for each section, including video courses, guides, and study plans to keep you on track. You can save hundreds of dollars with an LSAT course package.

2. Reading Comprehension Explanations
The explanations that should have come with the LSAT. These don't just fall back on "out of scope," but actually tell you why the wrong answers are wrong, why the right answers are right, and the easiest way to get the correct answer.

3. LSAT Vocabulary Builder
A handbook that guides you through confusing LSAT language, but not by forcing you to memorize hundreds of words. Instead, this comprehensive guide focuses on the LSAT's most commonly-used words and phrases and gives you their meanings on the LSAT.



LSAT Retakes + Law School Admissions

Let's imagine your upcoming LSAT doesn't go well. You can retake! There's always a future LSAT date. You can always take it later in the fall or in the winter.

Rolling admissions matters a lot less than it used to. 

Back in the days when there were twice as many law school applicants as there are now, it mattered more because law schools would just accept students immediately. They were afraid students would choose a different school and they would lose the benefit of getting your 165+ score or 170+ score.

Nowadays, it's flipped around a bit - there are so few applicants that law schools are choosing to wait to see who else will come along.

So they're deferring people. They're waitlisting people. Applying early matters much less than it used to. Students are retaking far more than before, so law schools are waiting to see who else is going to come along. This means you don't have to wait for them either.

You can just say, “Okay, well this test is just like any other. It's just a practice run where I happened to get LSAC’s proctoring. And this exam will one day be released as test 95, 103, whatever.
And some future test-taker, a few months from now, a year from now, six years from now, they’ll be taking my very same exam and it'll be their practice. So I can treat this exam the same because the importance of the LSAT does not rest on this particular LSAT administration."

And it's true. It all rests on your highest LSAT score. And the next exam that you're scheduled to take is not the only actual LSAT exam you can take. It's not the end-all-be-all. You have many future LSAT test dates when you can take it. It's offered nearly every month now.

There are so many opportunities for you to take the LSAT, and you're not limited to any one. And if you want more proctoring, you can also go to one of the free proctored tests offered by the major prep companies for marketing purposes. And you can bring your own exam, if you want more practice opportunities. So this LSAT test date coming up, it's not the only one. I wouldn't worry too much about it. 

PSA: Reschedule your March LSAT Registration

PSA: Reschedule your March LSAT Registration

LSAC is being characteristically slow to take action, adopting a "wait-and-see approach."

However, the coronavirus situation is obviously worsening and more test centers are closing.

It's not possible to administer the LSAT on a college campus if the campus is closed. And they're unlikely to book new test centers at this point to move students to them.

I suspect the March LSAT will be widely canceled worldwide.

This may be overkill, but my current read of the situation leads me to think the most prudent course of action for most students will be to reschedule to the test center of your choice for June or July in addition.

Alternatively, you could keep your March registration and book June or July in addition.

(I suspect April may be canceled as well.)

Bonus: LSAC has waived March test date change fees, so this won't cost you anything extra.

Caveat: I don't have any special information on this from any source - this is just my personal analysis of the situation.

(I'll send an email with more about my take on the overall situation tomorrow.)

why Gawker shut down

Am I the only one who spots correlation/causation issues EVERYWHERE? Or do they just stick out because I do LSAT stuff all day?

I don't know...but I couldn't help noticing a BUNCH of articles in Gawker committing correlation-causation flaws.

(Yeah, I know Gawker.com REALLY shut down because of the lawsuit with Hulk Hogan, but it's fun to pretend.)


For example, take a look at this one, "Poor Reading Skills Are Hazardous to Your Health."

They assume that because poor reading skills and poor health are correlated, that poor reading skills CAUSE poor health. Maybe a 3rd variable (low income?) is responsible for both!


Then, they did it again with this one: "Starbucks' War on Laptop Hobos Is Paying Off," assuming that kicking out "laptop hobos" is the *reason* for Starbucks' increased profits. (That's a post hoc fallacy, for those of you who care about such things.)


Then, they did it AGAIN in this article about smoking in the morning.

Crazy, right?

So, that's just some food for thought from the logical reasoning going on inside my brain as I read the news (and weirdly collect clips of what I find).

Be careful out there when you read the news these days :)

-LSkeptical Steve


P.S. Next time, I'll share one of the most surprising insights I've discovered about Reading Comp.


Recommended Resources:
1. LSAT Courses
The best of my LSAT material with exclusive access to attend my Live Online LSAT Master Classes + Q&As, and on-demand video lessons you can watch anytime. Plus, LSAT study plans to keep you on track. Save hundreds of dollars with an LSAT course package.

2. LSAT Day-By-Day Study Plans
Preparing for the LSAT is confusing. There are dozens of prep books and practice tests out there, and 1,000+ articles on my website alone. When, and how, should you use them all? These super-specific study plans give you a clear plan of attack.

3. LSAT Checklists
All the little items and details students don't usually think of. They hold you accountable and help you make sure you're not missing anything.




March LSAT Coronavirus Update from LSAC + Admitted Student Weekends

March LSAT Coronavirus Update from LSAC

LSAC has canceled March LSATs across Asia in China, Thailand, Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea. The June LSAT may be canceled there as well.

Some March LSAT test centers here in the US have been closed, meaning students in those locations will not be able to take the March LSAT. More test centers may be closed as well.

We'll see what happens as the situation unfolds.

(LSAC is closely monitoring the situation along with everyone else, of course.)

For anyone who's registered for the March or April LSATs pretty much anywhere, I certainly wouldn't count on being able to take it. You might want to think about June or July, in addition, or instead.


Admitted Students Weekends


For those of you who have already been admitted to law school, but might be retaking. You may have noticed that many admitted students weekends at law schools have been canceled or put online.

If this is affecting you, I wouldn't let it impact your ability to connect with admissions. officers and make a positive impression on them, and so if you want to set up a phone call with them or a video call simply to ask questions, that would be to your benefit -- both to create a good impression and for you to learn more about the school as well. Definitely don't miss out on that opportunity.

Law school admission officers are very accessible. They're very friendly. They want to help you and they understand obviously if you can't visit the campus, especially these days. They'll do whatever they can to share that information with you through another means.

The only LSAT writing sample tips you'll ever need

LSAT writing sample is EZ as 1-2-3!

It's so easy, this article contains everything you need to know.

Now, it's true that it has no impact on your LSAT score and many admissions offices don't read it.

So some people treat it like a joke...


Even one of the guys responsible for CREATING the LSAT admits:


you might not want to spend quite as much time on the writing sample


But as I shared last time, some admission officers DO read it, so here's everything you need to know:

What do you have to write about on the Writing Sample?

The topic's different every time, but each has something in common - every question gives you a scenario. You're asked to decide between two options based on several factors. Each option has pros and cons, which means that you can't go wrong with either choice. All you have to do is consider the benefits and drawbacks and ultimately choose one of the two possibilities.


How should you begin the Writing Sample?

Start with your conclusion so the reader knows you actually PICKED one of the two choices.

Your first sentence might be: "After weighing the pros and cons of the options presented before me, I have decided that Choice 1 is the better of the two options presented to the school / university / business."

Continue by saying something about the situation to show that you understand it. End the intro by telling the reader why Choice 2 is worse than Choice 1 for the individual facing this scenario.


But that's only the intro! How do I fill the rest of the page?

Start off your 2nd paragraph by examining each choice. Show you understand why each one has a couple of benefits (meaning it's not black and white that one choice is better than the other).

Continue your argument by stating that the benefits of your choice outweigh those of the other potential option. If you have the time, you could say the other choice's downsides significantly outweigh its benefits.


How should you end the Writing Sample?

Restate the first sentence of the intro and tell the reader it's the better choice after looking at the big picture. Say something fancy like, "After examining the fundamental goals of our organization, it is clear that..."


How should you study for the Writing Sample?

Reading this is ALMOST all you have to do. Take another look at it, read a few writing sample prompts (located at the end of every PrepTest), and you'll know what to do on test day!

***

Again, don't worry too much about it. Even my student Jared didn't think he did great on it, but he still improved 20+ points from his original LSAT score, which is what really matters.



Did you ever write a funny response to an LSAT Writing Sample? If you did, share it with me - best responses get a free prize :) 


Yours in LSAT Land,
Writin' Samplin' Steve


Recommended Resources:

1. LSAT Courses
The best of my LSAT material with exclusive access to attend my Live Online LSAT Master Classes + Q&As, and on-demand video lessons you can watch anytime. Plus, LSAT study plans to keep you on track. Save hundreds of dollars with an LSAT course package.

2. LSAT Day-By-Day Study Plans
Preparing for the LSAT is confusing. There are dozens of prep books and practice tests out there, and 1,000+ articles on my website alone. When, and how, should you use them all? These super-specific study plans give you a clear plan of attack.

3. LSAT Cheat Sheets
Based on what I'd typically do in college: read what the professor emphasized and condense it all onto a single piece of paper. It gave me a quick reference, making things a lot less threatening and a lot more manageable.


How to fail the LSAT writing sample

Got some questions about whether law schools look at the LSAT writing sample, whether they care.

There's nothing like hearing it straight from the source, so I asked Sarah Zearfoss, Senior Assistant Dean of Admissions at UMichigan Law.

Turns out, they do.


Here's what she said (emphasis added):

"A lot of applicants appear to make an assumption that the LSAT writing sample never gets looked at–and that’s not a safe assumption!

We use it in a lot of different ways. At the most basic level, we always at least glance at it, and that means someone who uses only three-quarters of a page out of the available two pages will stand out, as will the folks who draw pictures, or write repeatedly, "I know you’re not reading this." And I don’t mean that they stand out in the way that one hopes to in the admissions process.

For some applications, we routinely take a much closer look, particularly when we have reason to be concerned about writing abilities (based on a major or something else in the background suggesting a lack of writing experience, or based on a comment in a recommendation letter, or based on writing quality elsewhere in the application). The standard in those cases isn’t a highly rigorous one, to be sure, but we’re looking for a lack of mimicry between the question and the answer, a facility with basic grammar and spelling, and a reasonably coherent argument. It’s surprising how frequently people don’t meet that minimal standard.

And apart from how Admissions Office staff views the sample, there are always the faculty, an unpredictable lot. At Michigan, faculty don’t have a heavy involvement in reviewing files, but I would say at least 50% of those who do look at files consider the LSAT writing sample as the single most interesting element of the application materials. No, I’m not kidding. My colleagues at some other schools have confirmed this idiosyncrasy.

Bottom-line, applicants would be well-served to approach the writing sample with seriousness. You have to sit there for the duration anyway, so you might as well put a little effort into it, right? Treating it cavalierly could leave a big negative impression on a reviewer."



Turns out that it DOES matter. Sometimes. Kind of. Not as important as the scored sections, obviously, but you DEFINITELY can't treat it as a joke ----

Anyway, next time, I'll share some tips on how to approach the writing sample.

Stay tuned,
Steve


P.S. Send me your funniest responses to the LSAT writing sample. I always get a kick out of reading them.


Recommended Resources:

1. LSAT Courses
The best of my LSAT material with exclusive access to attend my Live Online LSAT Master Classes + Q&As, and on-demand video lessons you can watch anytime. Plus, LSAT study plans to keep you on track. Save hundreds of dollars with an LSAT course package.

2. LSAT Day-By-Day Study Plans
Preparing for the LSAT is confusing. There are dozens of prep books and practice tests out there, and 1,000+ articles on my website alone. When, and how, should you use them all? These super-specific study plans give you a clear plan of attack.

3. LSAT Checklists
All the little items and details students don't usually think of. They hold you accountable and help you make sure you're not missing anything.



how to improve your LSAT Logical Reasoning ability

I asked Dr. Deborah Bennett, the author of Logic Made Easy:

"Why are people so imprecise with language in ordinary conversation? How can we improve our logic in everyday life?"
Logic Made Easy

Her response:

"Many people are imprecise in their use of ordinary language. The rules of conversation allow for the listener to supply information. In fact, it is a compliment to the listener for the speaker to assume that not all information is necessary. If we are conversing, the more information I assume you know the more flattered you will be. At the other extreme, if I explain every detail necessary to be perfectly unambiguous you might be insulted that I am patronizing or pedantic—even talking down to you.

I believe that we can improve our logic in everyday life. We can improve our language and logic by thinking critically about everything we hear, read, write, and say. We should ask ourselves what language means and try not to read our own meaning into it. We should ask not only what a sentence says but also what the sentence does not say. By thinking about the logic of the language of others, our own language should become more precise."



Bottom line:

Just as you can become more logical and critical in everyday life, you can become more logical and critical in your approach to the LSAT!



***

Relatedly, I did an interview a while back where I answered students' general questions on the LSAT and its "learnability" - here it is:

1. Can the LSAT be learned?

Without a doubt, the LSAT can be learned. There's no question about it!.

The easiest and fastest way to improve is to become familiar with various LSAT question-types. This doesn't take very long, but the payoff is minimal.

The quickest way to see a significant improvement is to learn solid diagramming techniques for the Logic Games. This takes a decent amount of time.

The next step is to understand the "LSAT mindset." This is the most difficult task. It's like becoming a Jedi or seeing through the Matrix.


2. How does one acquire the LSAT mindset?

Learn to be critical and skeptical of arguments, avoid taking things at face value, consider potential alternative causes for any result and potential alternative explanations for any conclusion, devote obsessive attention to detail, understand nuances and apply general principles to specific situations. 

Obviously, this is complicated. Too much for one article (or several). Showing you HOW to do this is what my courses are all about.


3. Is the LSAT a good predictor of law school performance?

Yes, I believe the LSAT is a good independent predictor of law school performance.

People born with the LSAT mindset (aka nerds) are likely to do well on the LSAT and in law school.

Good news is....people who intensively prepare for the LSAT and eventually acquire the LSAT mindset are likely to intensively study in law school and eventually get the law school mindset, too!


4. How long does it take to "adequately" prepare for the LSAT?

1-2 months isn't enough for most students, especially when they have to balance LSAT prep with school or work. Whether you're shooting for high scores or average scores, you need time.

-time to fully understand the different sections
-time to develop strategies for attacking them
-time to work on pacing and endurance strategies

I recommend a minimum of 3 months of preparation and that studying consistently during this time (that's what my day-by-day LSAT study plans help you do).


Have you felt yourself acquiring the LSAT mindset as you study? Reach out and let me know what your experience has been like.

Talk soon,

Steve "used to be normal before I met the LSAT" Schwartz


Recommended Resources:

1. LSAT Courses
The best of my LSAT material with exclusive access to attend my Live Online LSAT Master Classes + Q&As, and on-demand video lessons you can watch anytime. Plus, LSAT study plans to keep you on track. Save hundreds of dollars with an LSAT course package.

2. LSAT Day-By-Day Study Plans
Preparing for the LSAT is confusing. There are dozens of prep books and practice tests out there, and 1,000+ articles on my website alone. When, and how, should you use them all? These super-specific study plans give you a clear plan of attack.

3. LSAT Cheat Sheets
Based on what I'd typically do in college: read what the professor emphasized and condense it all onto a single piece of paper. It gave me a quick reference, making things a lot less threatening and a lot more manageable.